Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Governor’s races today in Virginia
and New Jersey have been anticipated as barometers of next
year’s midterm congressional elections. A U.S. House race in
upstate New York may prove more meaningful.

The New Jersey campaign has been a referendum on the
Democratic incumbent, Governor Jon Corzine, 62, and his record
on property taxes, roads and other local issues. In Virginia,
where Republican Bob McDonnell, 55, leads Democrat Creigh Deeds,
51, the race has turned on traditional concerns of taxes and
transportation.

The New York election, in contrast, is a window onto a
battle between moderate and conservative Republicans over the
party’s future.

Republicans including former House Majority Leader Dick
Armey and former Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin
endorsed Doug Hoffman, a Conservative, over the choice of local
party leaders, Dede Scozzafava, 49. Scozzafava, who was
criticized for her support for abortion rights, dropped out over
the weekend, leaving Hoffman to face Bill Owens, 60, the
Democratic candidate. Scozzafava endorsed Owens.

Hoffman’s rise also reflects the emerging ability of
grassroots activists to push a candidate that is more aligned
with conservative positions on fiscal and social issues.

“Within the Republican Party it remains quite clear the
strategy is to remain on the right,” said Julian Zelizer, a
politics expert at Princeton University in New Jersey.

‘Don’t Move To The Center’

“The GOP sends a strong signal to other candidates ahead
of 2010 with this: don’t move to the center,â€

At the same time, he said, “New Jersey and Virginia are
like any off-year election; it’s very hard to see what the
meaning is.”

Also in New York, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has a 12
percentage-point lead over the Democratic candidate, William C.
Thompson Jr., according to a poll by Hamden, Connecticut-based
Quinnipiac University released Nov. 2. The mayor is founder and
majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP.

Voters in Boston, Houston, Miami, Detroit, Seattle and
Atlanta also will select mayors.

In Maine and Washington state, opponents of same-sex
marriages will attempt to roll back rights extended to gay and
lesbian couples. Voters will decide whether to reject marriage
laws that granted the same rights to gays as those given to
heterosexual marriages.

Proxy Battle

The New York congressional seat held by Republican
Representative John McHugh since 1993 became empty when he was
named Army secretary.

Scozzafava, a state Assemblywoman chosen by local
Republican leaders to compete in the special election, also was
targeted because of her support for same-sex marriage and
President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich endorsed her, saying the
party needed to be more inclusive. Palin and former Minnesota
Governor Tim Pawlenty lined up behind Hoffman.

David Carney, a former political director for President
George H.W. Bush, said Scozzafava was pressured out by voters,
not party leaders.

“The political elite missed the point,” he said. “It’s
the voters having a say.”

The Virginia race has centered primarily on local concerns,
not Obama, said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan
Rothenberg Political Report in Washington.

In a Washington Post poll conducted Oct. 22-25, 70 percent
of Virginia voters said Obama, who has campaigned for Deeds,
wouldn’t determine their vote. McDonnell has led every poll of
Virginia voters since July.

New Jersey’s race is much closer, according to a Quinnipiac
poll released Nov. 1.

“It’s going to be cliffhanger,” said Ross Baker, a
political science professor at Rutgers University in New
Brunswick, New Jersey.

‘Thumbs Down’

The Virginia contest has been regarded as the most likely
to reflect national sentiment, with no incumbent running on a
previous record.

The state also has a 30-year history of electing governors
from the party outside the White House. “For whatever reason,
they always vote thumbs down on the president’s party,” said
Rhodes Cook, editor of a nonpartisan political newsletter in
Virginia.

Deeds, a state senator, has been criticized by White House
officials frustrated with his strategy, which they said focused
too much on a thesis paper McDonnell wrote in graduate school in
which he called working women “detrimental” to the family.

Obama campaigned for Deeds last week in Virginia and the
president’s grassroots campaign network, Organizing for America,
also is working for the Democratic candidate.

New Jersey

“These turnout efforts obviously depend on enthusiasm for
the candidate himself,” said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst at the
nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington.

In New Jersey, Corzine in the final weeks of the campaign
has closed a polling deficit with Republican Christopher
Christie, who had an initial lead of as much as 12 percent in a
July 12 Quinnipiac poll. Christopher Daggett, an independent, is
running third.

Obama traveled to the state on three occasions to stump for
Corzine, including a Nov. 1 trip that included appearances at
voter rallies in Camden and Newark.

Patrick Murray, a professor of political science and
pollster at West Long Branch, New Jersey-based Monmouth
University, said Christie’s support dropped as he was unable to
convince voters he was a credible alternative to the incumbent.
A Republican last won a statewide election in New Jersey in
1997, when incumbent Governor Christine Whitman defeated
challenger James McGreevey.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Heidi Przybyla in Washington at
hprzybyla@bloomberg.net .